Middle Cities Education Association
Creating Opportunities for the Urban Learner

Predicting student enrollment trends is becoming increasingly complex. Many communities are experiencing high economic and housing growth and shifts in student numbers due to schools of choice and charter schools.

Middle Cities has provided enrollment projection services to school districts across Michigan for over 20 years. We have recently updated and refined our computer program to more adequately accommodate the many variables schools must consider when predicting enrollment trends.

The Middle Cities enrollment projection program uses 3 variations of the cohort survival method for projecting enrollment by grade through the next 10 years. The cohort survival method projects future enrollment, based upon survival rates from one grade to the next, and uses this data to predict what enrollments will likely be in the future.

The enrollment projection package provides support documentation including accuracy tables based upon prior year actual enrollments to allow each district to determine which of the three cohort survival methods has the best predictive power. Also included are charts graphically illustrating future enrollment trends for the three methods, which are ideally suited for converting to overhead transparencies. In addition, teacher projections for several different pupil:teacher ratios have been designed to further assist districts in assessing future staff and classroom needs.

• Can apply economic growth factors for unique situations;
• Is capable of using either FTE or headcount data depending on the needs of the district;
• Has the capability of using either countywide or individual community birth data;
• Provides pupil:teacher ratio tables that accommodate lower class size initiatives;
• Includes an interpretation guide.

*Group requests available at reduced price